What if iron ore and coking coal collapse together on a China steel contraction?
Synchronous iron-ore and coking-coal price collapse on a China steel contraction halves bulk-commodity export earnings for Australia and Brazil, a twin terms-of-trade shock to commodity sovereigns.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Synchronous iron-ore and coking-coal price collapse on a China steel contraction halves bulk-commodity export earnings for Australia and Brazil, a twin terms-of-trade shock to commodity sovereigns. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▼ · China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.