What if Chinese steel output contracts and sends iron ore from $120 toward $70 per tonne?
Chinese steel output contracts on a property hard landing, pushing iron ore from ~$120 to ~$70/t (a Dalian/SGX-tracked move) and slashing terms-of-trade for Australia and Brazil exporters.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Chinese steel output contracts on a property hard landing, pushing iron ore from ~$120 to ~$70/t (a Dalian/SGX-tracked move) and slashing terms-of-trade for Australia and Brazil exporters. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -4.17–+0.98% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 2 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.41–+0.28% · other way +1.82% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -8.02–+3.24% · other way -3.07% (n=10) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.7–+0.85% · other way +30.63% (n=11) |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -8.05–+2.94% · other way +5.06% (n=10) |
| 7 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -3.3–+0.77% · other way -0.98% (n=10) |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.6–-0.03% · other way -0.38% (n=11) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.24–+1.09% · other way -0.1% (n=11) |
| 10 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.9–+0.42% · other way -4.19% (n=10) |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -4.06–+1.42% · other way +6.9% (n=10) |
| 12 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.69–+0.05% · other way -0.96% (n=11) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.34–+0.27% · other way +0.11% (n=11) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.29–-0.06% · other way -0.63% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.1% | 67% | 30 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +1.6% ↺ fades | 67% | 30 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -15.0% | 67% | 15 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -7.4% | 65% | 17 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.5% | 63% | 30 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.8% | 63% | 30 | 0.24 | · |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -2.6% | 62% | 24 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -4.9% · 5d -3.5% | 62% | 13 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.2% | 61% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XPD XPD | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.5% | 60% | 30 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.9% | 60% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -6bp | 57% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -1.4% | 56% | 32 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |