What if African Swine Fever resurgence guts Chinese feed-grain demand?
A fresh ASF wave culls China's hog herd, collapsing soymeal and corn feed demand and dragging global feed-grain and oilseed prices lower.
23%
our model probability over 6–18 months
prediction markets — wisdom of the crowd
loading live odds…
◎ Empirically anchored 23%· 90% range 3–43%· 40 analogues · measured class deflation 44% in 18 mo · 3% held back for the unknownhow we built this number — every step
Measured class rate — deflation ≈0.3895/yr → 44% in 18 mo44%
Analyst prior · editorial share 54% of the class24%
Pooled · weight 87%24%
Crowd — no liquid market—
Reserve 3% · no extremizing (×1.0)24%
Published23%
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
loading the timeline…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A fresh ASF wave culls China's hog herd, collapsing soymeal and corn feed demand and dragging global feed-grain and oilseed prices lower. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▼ · China growth ▼ · Diesel ▼ · Food inflation ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
Market
Class
Projected move
1
CornCORNon Hyperliquid📈 chart
Commodity
▼ -0.4%
hist -0.89–+0.18% · other way -1.9% (n=10)
Probable recommendation
If the scenario above plays out, the probable cross‑asset positioning → a scenario‑conditional read, not personalized investment advice
For a common-man portfolio: Mixed for a typical portfolio — the move is more about rotation than direction. Favour the winners over the losers below rather than net exposure.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
Henry Hub natural gas hits a 25-year low amid record US production 2024-11↗Waha hub natural gas prices crash to record negative on Permian glut 2024-08↗Gold tops $4,000 and silver spikes past $50 in historic squeeze 2025-10↗China retaliates to Liberation Day: 34% tariffs + rare-earth controls 2025-04↗Gold tops $3,000 for the first time amid tariff and rate-cut fears 2025-03↗DeepSeek shock crushes AI-power utilities Vistra and Constellation 2025-01↗ASML bookings-miss crash 2024-10↗Gold tops $2,500 for the first time on Fed rate-cut bets 2024-08↗Niger coup d'etat 2023-07↗PJM grid emergency during Winter Storm Elliott 2022-12↗Offshore yuan hits a record low 2022-11↗China fires ballistic missiles into Japan's EEZ during Taiwan drills 2022-08↗Alibaba upsizes buyback to record $25 billion 2022-03↗Kaisa Group offshore default 2021-12↗Evergrande debt crisis - global selloff 2021-09↗Didi removed from China app stores after NYSE IPO 2021-07↗China's Sichuan Bitcoin-mining ban completes the 2021 crackdown 2021-06↗Bitcoin May 2021 crash 2021-05↗Copper tops $10,000 a tonne for the first time since 2011 2021-04↗Texas grid failure during Winter Storm Uri 2021-02↗Gold closes above $2,000/oz for the first time 2020-08↗Norilsk Nickel Arctic diesel spill 2020-05↗WTI crude futures settle negative as demand collapses 2020-04↗Chinese yuan breaks 7 per dollar; US names China manipulator 2019-08↗Apple cuts revenue guidance on China weakness 2019-01↗North Korea sixth nuclear test 2017-09↗North Korea 'fire and fury' nuclear scare 2017-08↗China stock-market circuit-breaker fiasco 2016-01↗August 24, 2015 ETF flash crash 2015-08↗China's PBOC reveals 57% jump in gold reserves after six-year silence 2015-07↗Shanghai A-share bubble peak / crash begins 2015-06↗SNB introduces negative interest rates 2014-12↗Gold futures velocity-logic flash crash 2014-01↗Gold all-time peak of $1,921/oz 2011-09↗Egyptian revolution / Mubarak uprising 2011-01↗Copper crashes to ~$1.30/lb as 2008 crisis crushes China demand 2008-12↗Oil collapses from $147 to the $30s as the GFC craters demand 2008-12↗China 4 trillion yuan stimulus 2008-11↗Henry Hub natural gas spot price peaks during 2008 commodity boom 2008-07↗Platinum hits all-time record near $2,290 on South African power crisis 2008-03↗