What if AI datacenter demand outstrips the power grid's supply?
Datacenter load outrunning supply is the core bull case: power scarcity validates the AI-capex spend, lifting NVDA and the gas complex (TTF/Henry Hub) as gas becomes the swing firm fuel. Rhymes with the 2024 PJM capacity-auction spike that priced data-center demand and lifted IPP/gas names. Skeptical: connection moratoriums also cap near-term GPU deployment, so the unambiguous winners are gas generators and grid copper, not just chips. The +0.9 ai_capex/NG map is sensible.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Datacenter electricity demand outstrips new supply in key US regions, forcing connection moratoriums and price spikes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · AI capex ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.