What if AI-driven power demand keeps US gas structurally tight to 2030?
Combined AI data-center, reshoring and electrification load keeps US gas demand growing faster than supply discipline allows, sustaining a structurally tighter balance and a higher Henry Hub floor.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Combined AI data-center, reshoring and electrification load keeps US gas demand growing faster than supply discipline allows, sustaining a structurally tighter balance and a higher Henry Hub floor. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation expectations ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.36–+1.62% · other way +0.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -2.22–+1.0% · other way +12.17% (n=12) |
| 3 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.16–+1.1% · other way -0.8% (n=11) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -3.22–+1.47% · other way +5.5% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.09–+0.74% · other way -1.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.17–+0.8% · other way +3.27% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.98–+0.74% · other way -1.22% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.8–+1.92% · other way -0.61% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.57–+0.97% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.07–+0.16% · other way -4.11% (n=12) |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.89–+0.42% · other way -3.06% (n=12) |
| 12 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.87–+1.93% · other way -2.28% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -3.98–+11.77% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -2.34–+6.92% · other way -1.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.0% | 61% | 34 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.6% | 62% | 36 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 62% | 28 | 0.16 | · |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.1% | 58% | 35 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.3% | 59% | 34 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +5bp | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 32 | 0.14 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +3bp | 55% | 40 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +0.1% | 55% | 40 | 0.08 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -6.0% | 52% | 34 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 47% | 28 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +0.6% · 5d +0.7% | 48% | 34 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |