What if CBAM reprices coal-powered aluminium against renewable-powered rivals?
CBAM penalises coal-powered aluminium smelting, repricing high-carbon aluminium producers versus hydro- and renewable-powered competitors and reshaping global trade flows.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. CBAM penalises coal-powered aluminium smelting, repricing high-carbon aluminium producers versus hydro- and renewable-powered competitors and reshaping global trade flows. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -0.96–-0.29% · other way +2.43% (n=10) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -0.95–+0.42% · other way +1.55% (n=10) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.57–+1.84% · other way +7.6% (n=10) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.34–-0.15% · other way +2.62% (n=10) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.77–+0.07% · other way +2.53% (n=10) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.79–+0.07% · other way -5.48% (n=4) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.71–+2.03% · other way +6.12% (n=10) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.15–+1.5% · other way +1.74% (n=6) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.69–-0.15% · other way +4.21% (n=10) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.11–+0.78% · other way +9.02% (n=10) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.26–+0.47% · other way -0.74% (n=10) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.69–-0.13% · other way -0.09% (n=9) |
| 13 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -4.36–+0.71% · other way +9.52% (n=10) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.81–+0.68% · other way +0.91% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.2% | 74% | 38 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -0.1% | 69% | 37 | 0.38 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.3% | 69% | 38 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -1.6% | 61% | 20 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.7% | 60% | 38 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 36 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.5% | 60% | 38 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -3.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 17 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -3.0% | 59% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.3% | 57% | 17 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 40 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +1.9% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 28 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.0% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |