What if the Amazon dries out and flips to savanna?
The tradable leg is the soft-commodity/risk-vol combo: an Amazon dieback is a multi-year Brazilian agri-supply shock (soy, sugar, coffee, beef) layered on a tail-risk vol bid, with carbon-offset prices spiking. Closest analogue is Brazil's 2021 frost/drought that ripped arabica coffee +60-70%. Forward angle: this is slow-burn structural, so it bleeds into the BRL and Brazilian ag exporters' replacement-cost margins rather than delivering a single VIX event; the modeled semis/Nvidia leg is noise.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Sustained drought tips the Amazon into self-drying collapse, releasing stored carbon and spiking global offset prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.