What if great-power competition over Arctic routes and resources escalates?
Competition over Arctic shipping lanes and resources amid melting ice raises great-power friction and militarization in a new contested theatre.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Competition over Arctic shipping lanes and resources amid melting ice raises great-power friction and militarization in a new contested theatre. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Defense spending ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +7.0% hist +0.38–+8.57% · other way -0.14% (n=11) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.5% hist -2.22–-1.25% · other way -0.16% (n=11) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -1.65–-0.58% · other way +3.27% (n=11) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.33–-0.46% · other way -0.02% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.46–-0.5% · other way +6.07% (n=11) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.2–+0.01% · other way +2.87% (n=11) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.32–+0.4% · other way +0.39% (n=11) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.35–+1.77% · other way +2.35% (n=11) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -4.0–+0.79% · other way +0.15% (n=11) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.3–+0.12% · other way +3.52% (n=11) |
| 11 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.89–-0.53% · other way -0.37% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.6–+0.84% · other way -1.77% (n=11) |
| 13 | Lockheed LMT 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.25–+0.92% · other way -4.27% (n=12) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.73–+0.87% · other way -0.31% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.8% · 5d -2.1% | 68% | 37 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 72% | 35 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 35 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.1% | 64% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 61% | 39 | 0.21 | · |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.7% | 61% | 39 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.1% | 63% | 35 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +4.6% · 5d +1.2% | 60% | 36 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.1% | 60% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 35 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 35 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +3.2% | 60% | 20 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.1% | 59% | 35 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |