What if foot-and-mouth disease reaches Australia?
FMD entering Australia is a beef-export catastrophe for Australia specifically — short AUD and Australian beef/livestock exporters, long competing US/Brazil beef as Asian buyers reroute; it is not a semiconductor or yuan trade. Rhymes with the 2022 Indonesia/Bali FMD scare that put Australia on knife-edge biosecurity alert; a real incursion could cost tens of billions over years. Transmission runs Australia-to-Japan/Korea/China beef trade; the modeled Nasdaq/TSMC cascade is the wrong market entirely.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Foot-and-mouth disease enters Australia, halting a top beef exporter and reshaping global meat trade flows. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.79–-0.14% · other way -0.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.7–-0.34% · other way +1.0% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.92–-0.16% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.85–+0.5% · other way +0.79% (n=12) |
| 5 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.6–+0.75% · other way -1.14% (n=11) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.5–+0.32% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 7 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.27–+0.68% · other way -4.29% (n=12) |
| 8 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.0–+1.0% · other way -2.1% (n=12) |
| 9 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.01–+1.1% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 10 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.94–+0.49% · other way +0.55% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.19–+2.01% · other way +2.57% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.75–-0.03% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -2.8–+0.65% · other way -2.89% (n=12) |
| 14 | Intel INTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.29–+0.75% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade's SHORT MSTR/SOL: only 7 analogues, all clustered in the 2024-25 crypto bull — regime contamination on a thin sample, not a signal about Australian foot-and-mouth disease.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 37 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -0.4% | 76% | 24 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -2.6% | 72% | 27 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 67% | 24 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.3% | 69% | 19 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +3.5% · 5d -3.9% ↺ fades | 65% | 11 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -1.3% | 63% | 24 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -2.8% | 63% | 24 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d +0.7% ↺ fades | 59% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.5% | 59% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -3.4% | 57% | 18 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 24 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 24 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Australia FMD incursion long-feared, strong biosecurity; first-ever entry is rare tail event. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.