What if a severe avian-flu wave culls poultry and sharply lifts egg and protein prices?
A severe highly-pathogenic avian-influenza wave culls poultry and lifts egg and protein prices sharply (a 2022-23-style episode), feeding food inflation, a zoonotic agricultural-supply shock.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A severe highly-pathogenic avian-influenza wave culls poultry and lifts egg and protein prices sharply (a 2022-23-style episode), feeding food inflation, a zoonotic agricultural-supply shock. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Pandemic shock ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.6% hist -9.84–+1.23% · other way -1.55% (n=12) |
| 2 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -4.36–+0.17% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 3 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.1–+0.6% · other way +0.6% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.14–+1.03% · other way +2.42% (n=12) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -2.01–+0.35% · other way -2.68% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.98–+-0.0% · other way -2.18% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.04–+0.54% · other way +0.7% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.82–+1.77% · other way +2.5% (n=11) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.56–+0.37% · other way +4.48% (n=11) |
| 11 | USD/JPY USDJPYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.55–+0.05% · other way +-0.0% (n=12) |
| 12 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.67–+0.79% · other way +1.63% (n=12) |
| 13 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.32–+0.73% · other way +4.37% (n=12) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.34–+0.45% · other way +0.45% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 39 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -1.9% | 76% | 28 | 0.50 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -4.5% | 71% | 28 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XHB XHB | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -0.0% | 69% | 28 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -3.8% | 65% | 19 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -4.7% | 59% | 22 | 0.15 | · |
| XOM XOM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -1.5% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.9% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.3% | 59% | 28 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.6% | 57% | 28 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 55% | 28 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +11.1% · 5d +6.6% | 55% | 29 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -1bp · 5d 0bp | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.3% | 53% | 28 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| CORN CORN | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.1% | 53% | 28 | 0.06 | ⚠ differs |