What if Azerbaijan becomes the EU's strategic gas-diversification partner?
With Russian pipeline gas curtailed, Brussels deepens energy ties with Baku, locking in long-term Azeri supply that supports its receipts and the manat.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. With Russian pipeline gas curtailed, Brussels deepens energy ties with Baku, locking in long-term Azeri supply that supports its receipts and the manat. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — EM currencies ▲ · European energy ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.06–+0.67% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.46–+0.39% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.4% hist -4.58–+1.66% · other way +9.99% (n=9) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.94–+0.3% · other way +-0.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.06–+1.29% · other way -0.08% (n=11) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.08–+0.56% · other way +2.47% (n=9) |
| 8 | Indian rupee INR 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.01–+0.14% · other way +0.34% (n=11) |
| 9 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.17–+2.07% · other way +0.74% (n=12) |
| 10 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.42–+13.0% · other way +5.58% (n=12) |
| 11 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.08–+0.21% · other way -0.9% (n=12) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.67–+0.19% · other way -0.62% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.34–+0.94% · other way -1.86% (n=12) |
| 14 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.49–+0.12% · other way +0.93% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.4% | 75% | 40 | 0.46 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +6bp | 73% | 40 | 0.38 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 69% | 39 | 0.37 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 75% | 38 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.1% | 71% | 39 | 0.33 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 68% | 38 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -1.0% | 64% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.9% · 5d -1.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -6.0% | 62% | 38 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -1.1% | 57% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -2.6% ↺ fades | 57% | 40 | 0.11 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.4% | 52% | 39 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d +0.3% ↺ fades | 50% | 38 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -2.2% ↺ fades | 47% | 38 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |