What if Petro-yuan oil invoicing expands in the Gulf?
More Gulf and Russian crude is priced and settled in yuan, nudging dollar oil-invoicing share lower and supporting CNH internationalization at the margin.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. More Gulf and Russian crude is priced and settled in yuan, nudging dollar oil-invoicing share lower and supporting CNH internationalization at the margin. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Dollar/reserve confidence ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +3.7% hist +0.06–+5.12% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.38–+1.12% · other way -0.22% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.23–-0.22% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -1.8–+5.83% · other way +31.53% (n=12) |
| 5 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.2% hist -0.41–+0.91% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 6 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.1% hist -4.11–+1.29% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.6–-0.33% · other way +1.22% (n=12) |
| 8 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.64–-0.27% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 9 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -4.83–+2.21% · other way +7.71% (n=12) |
| 10 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.12–+0.51% · other way -1.36% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -1.4–+4.38% · other way +7.2% (n=12) |
| 12 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.75–-0.07% · other way +1.95% (n=12) |
| 13 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -4.89–+11.37% · other way +22.72% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -1.98–+4.73% · other way +7.3% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 70% | 26 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +10.7% · 5d +2.9% | 71% | 13 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -5.1% · 5d -4.9% | 71% | 34 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.9% | 71% | 34 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.9% · 5d -1.6% | 68% | 26 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.0% | 70% | 38 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.8% · 5d +0.2% | 67% | 28 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -3.5% | 68% | 26 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +4.6% | 64% | 30 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.2% · 5d -2.0% | 64% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 64% | 23 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +3.1% · 5d +0.6% | 63% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.9% | 63% | 28 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -4.9% | 60% | 27 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |