What if Beijing-Taipei resume semi-official SEF-ARATS talks?
Quasi-governmental cross-strait bodies reconvene for the first time in years, signaling managed coexistence; Taiwan equities and TWD firm, regional geopolitical risk premium eases.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. Quasi-governmental cross-strait bodies reconvene for the first time in years, signaling managed coexistence; Taiwan equities and TWD firm, regional geopolitical risk premium eases. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -6.0% hist -3.67–-1.11% · other way -7.19% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +2.4% hist +0.73–+1.54% · other way -0.95% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.7% hist +0.4–+0.8% · other way -0.57% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist +0.02–+1.92% · other way -1.57% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.3% hist +0.06–+1.82% · other way +1.48% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -1.35–+4.68% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 7 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.3% hist -0.05–+1.83% · other way -1.02% (n=12) |
| 8 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -10.49–+1.41% · other way -13.33% (n=12) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.2% hist -5.38–+18.84% · other way +3.61% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -3.19–+0.95% · other way -2.85% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.84–+0.83% · other way -4.36% (n=12) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -2.47–+1.01% · other way -4.94% (n=12) |
| 14 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -0.84–+3.41% · other way +1.53% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.7% · 5d -6.2% | 78% | 39 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| LMT LMT | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.6% | 74% | 40 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -2.0% | 68% | 40 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.4% | 70% | 40 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.8% | 72% | 40 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -1.6% | 70% | 40 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.3% | 66% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 68% | 40 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +9bp · 5d 0bp ↺ fades | 66% | 40 | 0.24 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +16.5% · 5d +2.1% | 62% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.5% | 66% | 40 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.5% | 64% | 40 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| NOC NOC | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.0% | 64% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d +-0.0% | 62% | 40 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |