What if Biofuel-mandate rollback frees corn and vegoil back to food?
A pullback in US and EU biofuel mandates redirects corn and vegetable oil to the food supply, easing the grain-and-vegoil balance and prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A pullback in US and EU biofuel mandates redirects corn and vegetable oil to the food supply, easing the grain-and-vegoil balance and prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Corn ▼ · Diesel ▲ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.45–+1.46% · other way +0.72% (n=9) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.46–+4.06% · other way +7.24% (n=4) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.47–+7.15% · other way -0.21% (n=9) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.02–+0.15% · other way +0.44% (n=10) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% model prior · unmeasured |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 30 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 67% | 23 | 0.32 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -3.9% | 68% | 24 | 0.26 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 67% | 25 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.0% | 60% | 30 | 0.17 | · |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +4.1% · 5d -8.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 14 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +11bp · 5d +6bp | 52% | 30 | 0.05 | · |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.5% | 52% | 23 | 0.04 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +6.9% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 46% | 23 | 0.00 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.7% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 50% | 14 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 39% | 21 | 0.00 | · |