What if a widening BoC-Fed rate gap drives the Canadian dollar sharply weaker?
A widening BoC-Fed policy gap as Canada eases into the renewal wall while the Fed holds drives CAD sharply weaker, lifting import inflation and complicating the easing path.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A widening BoC-Fed policy gap as Canada eases into the renewal wall while the Fed holds drives CAD sharply weaker, lifting import inflation and complicating the easing path. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — FX carry appetite ▼ · Dollar/reserve confidence ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.7% hist -2.77–-0.45% · other way +23.24% (n=12) |
| 2 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.5% hist -5.94–+2.67% · other way +9.75% (n=11) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.4% hist -1.36–-0.52% · other way -3.1% (n=10) |
| 4 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.31–+0.51% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -7.96–+5.16% · other way +2.79% (n=11) |
| 7 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.48–-0.08% · other way +23.11% (n=10) |
| 8 | US dollar (DXY) DXYon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.17–+0.3% · other way +1.04% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.87–+0.79% · other way -7.07% (n=12) |
| 10 | Aussie dollar AUD 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.41–+0.33% · other way -1.81% (n=12) |
| 11 | Turkish lira TRY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.6% hist -9.72–+2.04% · other way -0.66% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.33–-0.07% · other way +0.63% (n=12) |
| 13 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.35–-0.11% · other way -0.27% (n=12) |
| 14 | EUR/USD EURUSDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.51–+0.43% · other way -1.12% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 32 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -8.2% · 5d -1.2% | 80% | 15 | 0.56 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 73% | 15 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.4% | 73% | 15 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -6.7% | 71% | 7 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 67% | 15 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.2% | 67% | 15 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.5% | 67% | 27 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 67% | 6 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 61% | 30 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | SHORT | -7bp · 5d -3bp | 63% | 28 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -8bp · 5d -4bp | 62% | 30 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.6% · 5d -7.5% | 62% | 8 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.5% | 60% | 15 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |