What if brain-computer implants cause a wave of injuries?
A BCI medical disaster collapses a still-tiny sector and invites FDA crackdown — short the pure-play neurotech complex; the NVDA/AVGO/MU spillover the cascade implies is essentially noise given BCI is an immaterial slice of AI-capex. The analogue is the recurring medical-device recall pattern (e.g. early deep-brain-stimulation scares) — sector-specific, no macro transmission. Roots flag only a small ai_capex hit, which is directionally fine but the named semis barely belong here.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Implanted neural devices cause a wave of injuries and a recall, collapsing the BCI sector and inviting harsh regulation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.