What if a prompt supply scare drives Brent into steep backwardation and squeezes refiners?
An acute prompt-supply scare drives Brent into steep backwardation with the front spread blowing out, signaling physical tightness and squeezing hedged consumers and refiners.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An acute prompt-supply scare drives Brent into steep backwardation with the front spread blowing out, signaling physical tightness and squeezing hedged consumers and refiners. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk-parity deleveraging ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.