What if a China-led oil demand shock hits Canadian and Norwegian producers in tandem?
A China-led global oil-demand shock drives Brent sharply lower, hitting Canadian and Norwegian producers, fiscal positions and energy-lending books in tandem.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A China-led global oil-demand shock drives Brent sharply lower, hitting Canadian and Norwegian producers, fiscal positions and energy-lending books in tandem. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil demand ▼ · Recession signal ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.46–+0.11% · other way -0.5% (n=7) |
| 2 | Financials XLF 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.0–+0.13% · other way +1.64% (n=9) |
| 3 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.37–+2.75% · other way -2.9% (n=9) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.68–+2.92% · other way +17.92% (n=9) |
| 5 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.9–+1.25% · other way -7.18% (n=9) |
| 6 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.51–-0.02% · other way -3.5% (n=9) |
| 7 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -3.29–+1.45% · other way -4.16% (n=10) |
| 8 | China internet KWEBon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.23–-0.11% · other way -2.59% (n=4) |
| 9 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.1–+1.74% · other way -6.74% (n=4) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.9–+0.69% · other way +5.65% (n=4) |
| 11 | JPMorgan JPM 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.49–+0.62% · other way +7.85% (n=10) |
| 12 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.42–+1.21% · other way +0.39% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.3% hist -8.26–+1.92% · other way +9.26% (n=4) |
| 14 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.6–+0.12% · other way +0.51% (n=10) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +0.4% | 65% | 40 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.1% · 5d -13.4% | 68% | 30 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -4.3% | 65% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.2% | 64% | 40 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d +0.3% | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | · |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -0.2% | 58% | 39 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.7% | 56% | 39 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.9% | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -1.4% | 55% | 36 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -3bp · 5d -4bp | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | · |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.1% | 53% | 39 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -4.7% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 52% | 39 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |