What if green-transition demand and supply underinvestment drive a broad commodity super-cycle?
Green-transition demand, supply underinvestment and fiscal stimulus drive a broad commodity super-cycle, lifting metals and energy together and embedding commodity-driven inflation, an NGFS/IMF scenario.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Green-transition demand, supply underinvestment and fiscal stimulus drive a broad commodity super-cycle, lifting metals and energy together and embedding commodity-driven inflation, an NGFS/IMF scenario. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Copper ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist -1.65–+1.35% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.5% hist -3.39–+1.47% · other way +5.14% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.88–+0.75% · other way +0.73% (n=12) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist -1.39–+1.03% · other way +8.45% (n=12) |
| 5 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.3–+0.42% · other way -0.74% (n=12) |
| 6 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.12–+3.86% · other way +5.35% (n=11) |
| 7 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.22–+0.59% · other way -2.22% (n=12) |
| 8 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.12–+0.48% · other way -0.45% (n=12) |
| 9 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -1.39–+2.71% · other way +5.96% (n=11) |
| 10 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.36–-0.09% · other way +1.69% (n=12) |
| 11 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -3.15–+15.12% · other way +4.1% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +4bp hist -3.26–+14.74% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.31–+0.14% · other way +1.66% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.38–-0.06% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.0% · 5d +3.8% | 67% | 32 | 0.30 | · |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.6% · 5d +0.3% | 66% | 31 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.3% | 66% | 31 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 63% | 20 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.8% | 61% | 31 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.3% · 5d -1.8% | 61% | 31 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| XPT XPT | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.5% | 61% | 31 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.8% | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 31 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +6bp | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.1% · 5d -4.2% | 60% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 31 | 0.15 | · |