What if markets front-run a disorderly carbon transition and dump fossil assets early?
Markets front-run a credible disorderly carbon path, dumping carbon-intensive assets a year ahead of policy in a self-reinforcing repricing that anticipates the NGFS Delayed-Transition step change.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Markets front-run a credible disorderly carbon path, dumping carbon-intensive assets a year ahead of policy in a self-reinforcing repricing that anticipates the NGFS Delayed-Transition step change. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist -1.12–+1.34% · other way +0.08% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.5% hist -2.9–+1.63% · other way +4.22% (n=11) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.81–+2.55% · other way +16.7% (n=11) |
| 4 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.58–+3.78% · other way -11.59% (n=11) |
| 5 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.64–-0.28% · other way +0.46% (n=11) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.08–-0.13% · other way -5.53% (n=8) |
| 7 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.27–+0.72% · other way +1.56% (n=11) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.78–+0.69% · other way +3.79% (n=8) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.41–+0.22% · other way +10.25% (n=8) |
| 11 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -1.2–+1.1% · other way -0.57% (n=11) |
| 12 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist +0.03–+0.51% · other way +1.74% (n=11) |
| 13 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.64–+2.81% · other way +8.52% (n=11) |
| 14 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.18–+0.64% · other way -1.03% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.3% | 69% | 33 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +1.8% | 65% | 34 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.3% | 66% | 36 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -2.3% | 62% | 33 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d +0.6% ↺ fades | 62% | 33 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.7% | 59% | 33 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -0.8% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.4% | 62% | 33 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.9% | 58% | 33 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +3.9% · 5d +1.9% | 59% | 23 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 60% | 36 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |