What if a disruption to Caspian or Kazakh crude exports tightens Europe-facing oil supply?
A disruption to Caspian or Kazakh crude exports through key terminals removes barrels from the European-facing market, tightening supply and lifting regional benchmarks.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A disruption to Caspian or Kazakh crude exports through key terminals removes barrels from the European-facing market, tightening supply and lifting regional benchmarks. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +6.4% hist +1.04–+5.4% · other way -10.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +4.2% hist +1.1–+2.68% · other way -1.15% (n=12) |
| 3 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.5% hist -0.25–+2.58% · other way +2.17% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.0% hist -2.04–-0.77% · other way +0.13% (n=12) |
| 5 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +2.5% hist +0.32–+2.7% · other way +0.47% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.4% hist -1.49–-0.76% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.62–-0.26% · other way +0.95% (n=12) |
| 8 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.86–+5.51% · other way +5.49% (n=12) |
| 9 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.8% hist -0.23–+3.02% · other way -2.14% (n=12) |
| 10 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.6% hist -0.06–+2.35% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 11 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.4–+2.27% · other way +5.38% (n=12) |
| 12 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.18–+3.2% · other way +16.28% (n=12) |
| 13 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.96–+1.35% · other way -1.62% (n=10) |
| 14 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.21–-0.25% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.1% | 68% | 31 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.8% | 69% | 31 | 0.30 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -4.2% · 5d -1.6% | 66% | 34 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.6% | 69% | 34 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +9bp | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.5% · 5d +1.4% | 65% | 25 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.2% · 5d +3.6% | 65% | 32 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +0.0% | 63% | 31 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -0.2% | 65% | 31 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +8bp | 60% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +4.2% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.2% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.1% | 62% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +0.1% | 61% | 31 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |