What if a Category 6 storm hits the Gulf Coast refinery corridor?
Cleanest trade is the crack spread: a sub-900mb storm into the Houston refining/petrochem corridor knocks out crude-processing and ethylene, so gasoline/diesel and plastics feedstocks spike harder than crude itself. Rhymes with Hurricane Harvey (2017), which idled ~25% of US refining and blew out Gulf gasoline cracks for weeks. Forward angle: today's larger US export-terminal exposure means a bigger global products/LNG shock than Harvey, even as upstream crude is well-supplied.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. An unprecedented sub-900mb storm devastates Houston's refinery and petrochemical corridor, spiking fuel and plastics prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.