What if Cheap abundant gas underwrites US power-price competitiveness?
A structural US gas glut keeps wholesale power cheap relative to global peers, underwriting electricity-intensive reshoring and data-center investment while pressuring upstream gas economics.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A structural US gas glut keeps wholesale power cheap relative to global peers, underwriting electricity-intensive reshoring and data-center investment while pressuring upstream gas economics. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.21–+0.44% · other way +0.03% (n=5) |
| 2 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.07–+0.95% · other way +9.76% (n=5) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.01–+0.46% · other way -6.88% (n=5) |
| 4 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -1.63–+6.54% · other way -3.36% (n=5) |
| 5 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist +0.04–+0.34% · other way -1.95% (n=5) |
| 6 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.89–+0.5% · other way -7.32% (n=6) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.3% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.06–+0.47% · other way -0.15% (n=5) |
| 9 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -4.12–+12.2% · other way +5.11% (n=5) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.11–+2.94% · other way -2.01% (n=5) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.04–+0.47% · other way -1.31% (n=6) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.9–+6.61% · other way +0.27% (n=5) |
| 13 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.59–+1.4% · other way +0.99% (n=5) |
| 14 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.03–+0.26% · other way -0.08% (n=5) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 27 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX FCX | LONG | +5.7% · 5d +2.0% | 65% | 24 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 67% | 26 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -3.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 16 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -4.3% · 5d -4.7% | 64% | 26 | 0.21 | · |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +11.1% · 5d -2.7% ↺ fades | 60% | 24 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.7% · 5d -3.2% | 58% | 24 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +7bp · 5d +1bp | 59% | 27 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -2.4% | 57% | 26 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 24 | 0.11 | · |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 51% | 18 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +6.7% · 5d -1.9% ↺ fades | 51% | 17 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 51% | 24 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.3% | 51% | 24 | 0.01 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.5% | 51% | 27 | 0.01 | · |