What if a cyberattack disrupts a major Chinese bank during geopolitical tension?
A cyberattack disrupts a large Chinese bank's systems amid geopolitical tension, testing the operational resilience of a banking system the PBoC and IMF flag for concentration.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A cyberattack disrupts a large Chinese bank's systems amid geopolitical tension, testing the operational resilience of a banking system the PBoC and IMF flag for concentration. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▼ · Financial conditions ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.4% hist -1.17–+2.92% · other way -3.85% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.09–-0.33% · other way +0.33% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -1.01–-0.45% · other way +0.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -2.88–+4.42% · other way +24.09% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.2% hist -13.67–+2.98% · other way -4.39% (n=11) |
| 6 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.75–+0.14% · other way -0.33% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -6.99–+1.42% · other way +5.0% (n=11) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.61–-0.03% · other way +3.11% (n=12) |
| 9 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -5.09–+1.53% · other way +5.51% (n=11) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.77–-0.08% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist +0.05–+0.69% · other way -0.55% (n=12) |
| 13 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.8–+0.2% · other way +3.39% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.89–+0.42% · other way +1.72% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.8% · 5d -7.5% | 66% | 31 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -2.6% | 67% | 38 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -11.5% · 5d -15.4% | 67% | 22 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -3.0% | 66% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.6% | 65% | 38 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -0.9% | 63% | 38 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.9% | 63% | 38 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +7.3% · 5d +2.5% | 61% | 21 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.2% | 61% | 38 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -3.6% | 62% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -1.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.2% | 62% | 38 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -2.4% · 5d -2.4% | 60% | 40 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |