What if a Chinese open model tops the global rankings?
A Chinese open release topping global rankings shifts developer mindshare off Western incumbents — bearish US semis/Nasdaq on monetization doubt, but mildly bullish global growth and China internet on the capability signal. Direct analogue is DeepSeek-R1 (Jan-2025) seizing developer attention overnight. Transmission: mindshare migration steers downstream tooling and inference toward Chinese-optimized stacks. Forward angle: soft-power AI leadership, distinct from the hardware-independence story in 711.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A Chinese lab's open release tops global rankings, shifting developer mindshare off Western incumbents. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · China growth ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.