What if Beijing subsidizes AI-chip exports to the Global South?
Beijing subsidizing domestic-accelerator exports to the Global South fragments the AI-chip market, pressuring the Nasdaq and US semis as Western TAM shrinks at the margin; yuan softer on subsidy-driven trade friction. Rhymes with China's solar/EV export-dumping playbook (2023-24) that crushed Western competitors' pricing. Transmission: Global-South buyers gain a cheap Nvidia alternative, eroding the merchant moat. Forward angle: bifurcates the world into US and Chinese AI hardware blocs along Belt-and-Road lines.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Beijing subsidizes domestic-accelerator exports to the Global South, fragmenting the AI-chip market. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — China growth ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.