What if rules close the offshore cloud loophole for controlled chips?
Closing the offshore cloud-rental loophole hits neocloud China revenue, a trade-tension shock dragging the Nasdaq, semis and Alibaba with a weaker yuan. Rhymes with the 2025 tightening that targeted IaaS access to controlled chips after the smuggling and remote-access workarounds emerged. Transmission: cloud access was China's last compliant route to frontier compute — closing it forces full reliance on domestic Ascend silicon. Skeptic's note: roots are trade_tension-only and correctly omit a supply-side shock.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Rules restrict offshore cloud rental of controlled chips, hitting neocloud China revenue. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.