What if Chinese EV exports strand Western ICE producers and trigger tariff retaliation?
China's low-cost EV export surge strands Western ICE producers and triggers tariff retaliation, compounding transition risk with trade fragmentation in the auto complex.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China's low-cost EV export surge strands Western ICE producers and triggers tariff retaliation, compounding transition risk with trade fragmentation in the auto complex. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Job displacement ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.7% hist -1.09–-0.2% · other way +0.15% (n=11) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -0.98–+0.1% · other way +1.59% (n=11) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.61–+1.49% · other way +0.15% (n=11) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.43–-0.08% · other way +1.14% (n=11) |
| 5 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.79–+0.09% · other way +0.23% (n=11) |
| 6 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.24–+2.08% · other way -5.11% (n=9) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.3–+1.25% · other way -3.44% (n=11) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.1–+1.19% · other way +3.82% (n=11) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.89–+0.29% · other way -0.46% (n=11) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.21–+1.03% · other way +2.18% (n=11) |
| 11 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.71–+0.56% · other way -3.23% (n=11) |
| 12 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.7–-0.12% · other way -0.65% (n=11) |
| 13 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -3.63–+1.02% · other way +17.24% (n=11) |
| 14 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -3.1–+0.81% · other way -1.89% (n=11) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -1.2% | 75% | 39 | 0.44 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -1.5% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -0.1% | 63% | 39 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -7.8% · 5d -7.2% | 67% | 13 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.3% | 63% | 20 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -9.9% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 64% | 12 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -1.4% | 62% | 23 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | LONG | +2.4% · 5d -2.5% ↺ fades | 59% | 20 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |
| XLF XLF | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.6% | 58% | 39 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -2.5% | 59% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.0% | 58% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.5% | 58% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d -2.4% | 58% | 39 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.9% · 5d -2.0% | 56% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |