What if SMIC/Huawei domestic-stack acceleration erodes US chip share?
Accelerated indigenous logic, memory and tooling from SMIC and Huawei lets China substitute domestic chips, permanently shrinking the addressable market for US suppliers.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Accelerated indigenous logic, memory and tooling from SMIC and Huawei lets China substitute domestic chips, permanently shrinking the addressable market for US suppliers. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.51–-0.67% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.35–-0.38% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 3 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.14–-0.39% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 4 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.33–-0.33% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 5 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.4% hist -3.79–+0.95% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -0.77–-0.42% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.21–+0.51% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.17–+1.6% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -3.09–+0.4% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -1.04–+0.66% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 11 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -0.64–-0.31% · other way -0.79% (n=12) |
| 12 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% hist -10.52–+2.06% · other way -17.76% (n=11) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -3.37–+0.84% · other way -3.2% (n=12) |
| 14 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.82–+0.38% · other way +8.12% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -8.4% · 5d -5.8% | 76% | 38 | 0.41 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.6% · 5d -3.7% | 67% | 39 | 0.34 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.30 | ⚠ differs |
| KWEB KWEB | SHORT | -2.6% · 5d -1.2% | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 67% | 39 | 0.29 | · |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.8% · 5d -6.5% | 70% | 36 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| FCX FCX | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.9% | 65% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.8% | 65% | 39 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.4% | 67% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d +0.8% ↺ fades | 65% | 39 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -3.2% | 63% | 39 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.7% · 5d -3.2% | 63% | 39 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.1% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |