What if China imposes a Taiwan no-fly zone, halting commercial aviation?
Beijing declares and enforces an exclusion zone over Taiwan's airspace, grounding civil flights and rerouting Asia-Pacific traffic; airline and chip-logistics fear hits SMH, TWD falls, VIX rises.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Beijing declares and enforces an exclusion zone over Taiwan's airspace, grounding civil flights and rerouting Asia-Pacific traffic; airline and chip-logistics fear hits SMH, TWD falls, VIX rises. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Jet fuel ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +9.6% hist +1.69–+8.34% · other way -7.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -4.0% hist -2.68–-1.05% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.7–-0.67% · other way -0.18% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.68–-0.74% · other way -1.0% (n=12) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.2% hist -2.04–-0.5% · other way +1.19% (n=12) |
| 6 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.2% hist -4.28–+0.0% · other way -1.4% (n=12) |
| 7 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.78–-0.06% · other way +0.18% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.1% hist -2.06–+0.94% · other way +22.88% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.7% hist -3.39–+0.47% · other way -8.33% (n=11) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -2.96–+0.4% · other way -4.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.81–-0.11% · other way -3.95% (n=12) |
| 12 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.05–-0.39% · other way +0.16% (n=12) |
| 13 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.27–+0.83% · other way -5.78% (n=12) |
| 14 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -1.11–-0.24% · other way -1.59% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -2.2% | 76% | 34 | 0.40 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +1.1% · 5d +0.4% | 71% | 34 | 0.34 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +12bp · 5d +7bp | 63% | 40 | 0.25 | · |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.6% · 5d -2.7% | 66% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.4% | 65% | 36 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.9% | 65% | 36 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 62% | 34 | 0.21 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -3.1% | 65% | 34 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.2% | 60% | 36 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +3.2% · 5d +6.3% | 61% | 35 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLK XLK | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.3% | 59% | 35 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | LONG | +1.5% · 5d -1.5% ↺ fades | 56% | 35 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |