What if China phosphate export curb tightens world DAP/MAP supply?
Beijing extends phosphate-fertilizer export restrictions to protect domestic supply, squeezing global DAP/MAP availability and lifting phosphate prices.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Beijing extends phosphate-fertilizer export restrictions to protect domestic supply, squeezing global DAP/MAP availability and lifting phosphate prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fertilizer cost ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.