What if China phosphate export curb tightens world DAP/MAP supply?
Beijing extends phosphate-fertilizer export restrictions to protect domestic supply, squeezing global DAP/MAP availability and lifting phosphate prices.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Beijing extends phosphate-fertilizer export restrictions to protect domestic supply, squeezing global DAP/MAP availability and lifting phosphate prices. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Fertilizer cost ▲ · Food inflation ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Trade tension ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.68–-0.07% · other way -0.56% (n=12) |
| 2 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.38–-0.06% · other way +1.1% (n=12) |
| 3 | Alibaba BABAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.34–+0.29% · other way -1.25% (n=12) |
| 4 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.31–-0.02% · other way +2.02% (n=12) |
| 5 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.43–-0.02% · other way +2.18% (n=12) |
| 6 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.23–-0.1% · other way -0.47% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.21–-0.06% · other way -1.86% (n=12) |
| 8 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.06–+2.28% · other way -1.79% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.41–+0.38% · other way +4.47% (n=12) |
| 10 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.65–+1.37% · other way +1.54% (n=12) |
| 11 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.63–+0.11% · other way +31.9% (n=12) |
| 12 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -2.16–+0.9% · other way -2.98% (n=12) |
| 13 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -3.94–+0.95% · other way -1.53% (n=12) |
| 14 | Chinese yuan CNY 📈 chart | FX | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.61–+0.13% · other way -0.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -5.5% · 5d -3.7% | 75% | 35 | 0.49 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.8% | 67% | 34 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -4.4% · 5d -5.2% | 68% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.6% | 66% | 35 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -2.5% | 67% | 34 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BABA BABA | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.4% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 57% | 34 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -1.1% | 60% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -2.0% | 60% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -1.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.13 | ⚠ differs |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -3.0% · 5d +0.5% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.9% | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 57% | 34 | 0.12 | · |