What if China-Taiwan peace treaty framework removes the war-risk tail?
A historic political framework formalizing peaceful coexistence between Beijing and Taipei removes the single largest Asia-Pacific tail risk; Taiwan assets and SMH rerate sharply, gold and VIX premia collapse.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A historic political framework formalizing peaceful coexistence between Beijing and Taipei removes the single largest Asia-Pacific tail risk; Taiwan assets and SMH rerate sharply, gold and VIX premia collapse. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Gold ▼ · Geopolitical risk ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ · Semiconductor supply risk ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.