What if a fatal decompression hits a private space station?
A fatal orbital-station decompression freezes the commercial-LEO investment boom — a space-sector risk-appetite event, not an AI-capex shock; the Nvidia/semis legs are misrouted. Rhymes with how the 2003 Columbia disaster grounded crewed flight and chilled program funding. Transmission hits LEO operators, launch/insurance, and space-SPAC sentiment; the modeled crypto/semis cascade is spurious — this is contained to commercial-space capital and human-spaceflight insurers.
Every number ships with its receipt — the odds, the range, the precedents, and a public grade at Reality Check. The statistical machinery that produces it is proprietary.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A fatal decompression aboard a private orbital station kills crew, freezing the commercial low-Earth-orbit investment boom. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Risk appetite ▼ · AI capex ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.