What if Taiwan, the Middle East and Eastern Europe escalate simultaneously?
Multiple flashpoints (Taiwan, Middle East, Eastern Europe) escalate near-simultaneously, overwhelming risk markets in a compound shock beyond single-scenario stress tests.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 1–3 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Multiple flashpoints (Taiwan, Middle East, Eastern Europe) escalate near-simultaneously, overwhelming risk markets in a compound shock beyond single-scenario stress tests. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Recession signal ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +13.0% hist +3.05–+8.96% · other way -0.36% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -6.1% hist -3.81–-2.25% · other way -0.34% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.2% hist -2.63–-1.22% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -3.4% hist -2.91–-0.89% · other way +1.22% (n=12) |
| 5 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.7% hist -3.47–+1.24% · other way +31.53% (n=12) |
| 6 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.9% hist -2.6–-0.26% · other way -3.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +3.0% hist +0.05–+2.08% · other way -3.03% (n=12) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -2.6% hist -1.69–-0.59% · other way +1.95% (n=12) |
| 9 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.3% hist -3.11–+1.8% · other way -2.56% (n=12) |
| 10 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -2.2% model prior · unmeasured |
| 11 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.1% hist -3.48–+0.33% · other way +7.71% (n=12) |
| 12 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -2.0% hist -5.08–+0.75% · other way +5.29% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -1.8% hist -1.27–-0.47% · other way -0.42% (n=12) |
| 14 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.9% hist -1.62–-0.39% · other way +3.19% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.5% · 5d +2.5% | 70% | 15 | 0.35 | ⚠ differs |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -2.0% | 64% | 38 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 64% | 36 | 0.23 | ✓ matches cascade |
| HOOD HOOD | LONG | +6.2% · 5d +0.5% | 64% | 15 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.4% · 5d -1.9% | 65% | 38 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ARM ARM | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -6.1% | 68% | 8 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -1.6% | 63% | 38 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| LMT LMT | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 40 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -3.7% · 5d -4.0% | 62% | 23 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.3% | 62% | 39 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -2.1% | 61% | 39 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CVX CVX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +0bp · 5d +5bp | 60% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.5% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 59% | 33 | 0.16 | ⚠ differs |