What if Cooling wages clear the way for a Fed dovish pivot?
A decisive slowdown in wage growth removes the last inflation hurdle, letting the Fed pivot dovish; the front end rallies and risk assets climb on the cleaner disinflation path.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-on shock. A decisive slowdown in wage growth removes the last inflation hurdle, letting the Fed pivot dovish; the front end rallies and risk assets climb on the cleaner disinflation path. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Credit spreads ▼ · Fed policy path ▼ · Labor surplus ▲ · Real yields ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.24–+2.5% · other way -7.98% (n=8) |
| 2 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +1.1% hist -7.04–+5.35% · other way +18.64% (n=2) |
| 3 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +1.1% hist +0.31–+1.23% · other way +0.29% (n=9) |
| 4 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist -0.08–+1.67% · other way +0.27% (n=8) |
| 5 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▲ +0.9% model prior · unmeasured |
| 6 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.54–+1.95% · other way -8.54% (n=2) |
| 7 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▲ +0.8% hist -3.41–+2.52% · other way -15.58% (n=6) |
| 8 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.4–+1.37% · other way -0.76% (n=12) |
| 9 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.9–+0.79% · other way +2.6% (n=9) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -10.77–+8.62% · other way -0.8% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.64–+1.31% · other way +0.71% (n=8) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -5bp hist -11.16–+13.9% · other way -3.2% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.12–+0.53% · other way +0.66% (n=7) |
| 14 | Coinbase COINon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -8.87–+3.68% |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN COIN | SHORT | -8.6% · 5d -3.4% | 100% | 6 | 0.61 | ⚠ differs |
| HOOD HOOD | SHORT | -9.3% · 5d -3.5% | 83% | 6 | 0.54 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | LONG | +5.4% · 5d +0.0% | 76% | 12 | 0.47 | ✓ matches cascade |
| USDJPY USDJPY | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.9% | 76% | 12 | 0.42 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -8.1% · 5d -4.1% | 75% | 8 | 0.39 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -4.0% · 5d -3.1% | 78% | 9 | 0.38 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -0.7% | 68% | 12 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +2.4% · 5d +0.1% | 68% | 12 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +17bp · 5d +5bp | 67% | 13 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| EURUSD EURUSD | LONG | +0.7% · 5d +0.4% | 65% | 11 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.2% | 63% | 13 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +5.4% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 60% | 12 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +2.0% · 5d +0.4% | 60% | 12 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 60% | 12 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |