What if Coordinated substation attack causes a regional grid outage?
A coordinated physical attack on key substations knocks out power to a metro region for days, exposing grid-security gaps; the event spikes volatility and accelerates mandated hardening capex.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A coordinated physical attack on key substations knocks out power to a metro region for days, exposing grid-security gaps; the event spikes volatility and accelerates mandated hardening capex. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · Financial conditions ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.6% hist +2.01–+3.47% · other way -6.26% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.3% hist -1.42–-0.78% · other way +0.54% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.6% hist -0.99–-0.54% · other way +0.44% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.3% hist -3.95–+4.97% · other way +0.66% (n=11) |
| 5 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.2% hist -0.65–+0.0% · other way -2.16% (n=12) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.3% hist -1.16–+0.33% · other way +24.14% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.79–+0.31% · other way +2.67% (n=12) |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -4.35–+1.36% · other way +8.23% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.76–-0.08% · other way +6.85% (n=11) |
| 11 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.62–-0.14% · other way -0.11% (n=12) |
| 12 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.8% hist -0.94–-0.06% · other way +1.41% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.01–+0.85% · other way -1.03% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.48–-0.18% · other way -0.25% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RTX RTX | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -1.3% | 67% | 40 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.1% · 5d +2.3% | 66% | 15 | 0.27 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +1bp | 66% | 40 | 0.26 | · |
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| MRVL MRVL | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -1.5% | 64% | 40 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NOC NOC | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TRY TRY | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d +1.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 40 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -3.5% · 5d -2.0% | 61% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.1% | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 60% | 40 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -3.0% | 57% | 29 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.7% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -2.8% | 58% | 40 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |