What if Cyberattack on a US LNG terminal halts exports, splits prices?
A cyberattack forces a precautionary shutdown of a major US LNG export terminal, stranding feedgas domestically and spiking TTF and JKM on the sudden loss of Atlantic-basin cargoes.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A cyberattack forces a precautionary shutdown of a major US LNG export terminal, stranding feedgas domestically and spiking TTF and JKM on the sudden loss of Atlantic-basin cargoes. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +5.2% hist +1.55–+3.27% · other way -3.02% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -2.1% hist -1.33–-0.79% · other way -0.15% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.5% hist -0.95–-0.51% · other way -0.28% (n=12) |
| 4 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -1.1% hist -0.55–-0.06% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 5 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.62–-0.07% · other way +0.7% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -3.2–+5.95% · other way +25.67% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -0.64–-0.2% · other way +2.23% (n=12) |
| 8 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 9 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.05–+0.5% · other way +8.54% (n=11) |
| 10 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.72–+0.6% · other way +7.64% (n=11) |
| 11 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.31–+0.1% · other way +4.02% (n=12) |
| 12 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -0.25–+1.24% · other way -1.43% (n=12) |
| 13 | High-yield credit HYG 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.43–-0.11% · other way -0.59% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.6% hist -0.81–-0.02% · other way -0.06% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPX SPX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 64% | 40 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +9.9% · 5d +2.8% | 63% | 22 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.4% | 62% | 29 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NG NG | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d -1.9% | 61% | 29 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.6% | 62% | 30 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -1.8% · 5d +0.4% ↺ fades | 59% | 34 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.4% | 60% | 34 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -2.7% | 59% | 28 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.2% | 58% | 30 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| EURUSD EURUSD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.1% | 58% | 29 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d +0.2% | 57% | 32 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLF XLF | LONG | +0.0% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 57% | 30 | 0.12 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +6bp | 56% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| JPM JPM | LONG | +1.0% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 56% | 34 | 0.10 | ⚠ differs |