What if Data-center demand stall punctures the uranium-and-power bull?
A pause in AI data-center build-outs cuts projected baseload demand, deflating the nuclear-and-uranium trade and dragging power-utility and miner equities lower together.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A pause in AI data-center build-outs cuts projected baseload demand, deflating the nuclear-and-uranium trade and dragging power-utility and miner equities lower together. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▼ · Clean-energy abundance ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.09–+0.45% · other way -3.79% (n=6) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.44–+0.11% · other way -2.29% (n=3) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.31–-0.13% · other way +14.28% (n=3) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.52–-0.05% · other way -13.36% (n=8) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.31–-0.14% · other way +0.25% (n=6) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -2.35–+4.15% · other way +5.54% (n=6) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -3.3–+1.38% · other way +9.31% (n=3) |
| 9 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.02% · other way -9.65% (n=6) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.24–-0.05% · other way -0.69% (n=8) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.55–+0.46% · other way -2.24% (n=7) |
| 12 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.29–+0.23% · other way -8.41% (n=6) |
| 13 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.01–+0.19% · other way +17.02% (n=3) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.48–+0.05% · other way -9.01% (n=8) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL CL | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -2.1% | 66% | 39 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 32 | 0.24 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 64% | 39 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -2.2% | 62% | 38 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -4bp · 5d +2bp ↺ fades | 63% | 40 | 0.20 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.8% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 60% | 39 | 0.18 | · |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -0.5% | 59% | 39 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -6.2% | 61% | 25 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -2.4% | 59% | 40 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.5% | 57% | 39 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.6% · 5d -4.4% | 59% | 39 | 0.13 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -2.1% | 57% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -1.1% | 55% | 39 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 38 | 0.09 | · |