What if Datacenter gas turbines outbid LDCs, regional basis blows out?
Behind-the-meter AI datacenters lock up new gas turbines and pipeline capacity faster than utilities, pushing regional basis differentials in PJM and the Southeast sharply higher.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Behind-the-meter AI datacenters lock up new gas turbines and pipeline capacity faster than utilities, pushing regional basis differentials in PJM and the Southeast sharply higher. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▲ · AI capex ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -2.68–+2.99% · other way +0.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.52–+1.19% · other way -0.8% (n=11) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -6.21–+3.7% · other way +5.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Natural gas NGon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist -8.72–+5.13% · other way +12.17% (n=12) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.2–+0.83% · other way -1.05% (n=12) |
| 6 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -2.64–+5.3% · other way +3.27% (n=12) |
| 7 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.43–+1.37% · other way -1.22% (n=12) |
| 8 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.3–+2.05% · other way -0.61% (n=12) |
| 9 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.97–+1.04% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -0.75–+1.38% · other way -4.11% (n=12) |
| 11 | Qualcomm QCOMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.48–+2.68% · other way -3.06% (n=12) |
| 12 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -1.78–+2.94% · other way -2.28% (n=12) |
| 13 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -6.83–+14.45% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -3.83–+8.61% · other way -1.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 19 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NG NG | SHORT | -9.1% · 5d -3.8% | 66% | 13 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +5.1% · 5d +2.4% | 66% | 13 | 0.29 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -2.1% | 64% | 15 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -6.5% · 5d -4.9% | 65% | 14 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 13 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| QCOM QCOM | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.2% ↺ fades | 62% | 13 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.0% | 62% | 7 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d +0.1% ↺ fades | 62% | 11 | 0.17 | · |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +2.9% · 5d +0.6% | 59% | 13 | 0.16 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d +0.2% | 59% | 19 | 0.13 | · |
| ASML ASML | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -1.1% ↺ fades | 55% | 13 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +8bp | 54% | 18 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -1.1% · 5d -0.7% | 52% | 13 | 0.03 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +8bp · 5d +6bp | 51% | 19 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |