What if Datacenter-power capex glut sparks an electrical-equipment derating?
Signs that turbine and transformer ordering overshot real demand spark a sector-wide derating of electrical-equipment names as backlog quality is questioned and cancellation risk rises.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. Signs that turbine and transformer ordering overshot real demand spark a sector-wide derating of electrical-equipment names as backlog quality is questioned and cancellation risk rises. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Volatility (VIX) ▲ · AI capex ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.05–+0.1% · other way -5.52% (n=10) |
| 2 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.07–+0.5% · other way -7.38% (n=12) |
| 3 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.82–+0.51% · other way +6.83% (n=12) |
| 4 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 5 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.74–+0.99% · other way +0.76% (n=11) |
| 6 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.73–+0.96% · other way +18.0% (n=12) |
| 7 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -7.49–+2.34% · other way +6.05% (n=10) |
| 8 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.32–+0.35% · other way +0.88% (n=12) |
| 9 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.67–+0.55% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 10 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.36–+0.22% · other way +2.41% (n=12) |
| 11 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–+0.19% · other way +0.67% (n=12) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.04–+0.54% · other way +10.62% (n=11) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.21–+0.07% · other way +0.8% (n=12) |
| 14 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -0.25–+0.2% · other way -1.44% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.7% · 5d -5.8% | 64% | 22 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -2.6% | 62% | 30 | 0.20 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -4.4% | 61% | 27 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.15 | · |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 58% | 40 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.0% · 5d -1.1% | 57% | 40 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 57% | 39 | 0.10 | · |
| NDX NDX | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 56% | 40 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -1.5% · 5d -3.5% | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 55% | 40 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -0.8% | 53% | 40 | 0.06 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.2% · 5d +1.7% | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +1.2% · 5d -2.9% ↺ fades | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ⚠ differs |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | +-0.0% · 5d -0.6% | 52% | 40 | 0.04 | ✓ matches cascade |