What if Datacenter-power capex pause de-rates equipment after order air-pocket?
A pause in hyperscaler capex creates an order air-pocket for power equipment, de-rating GEV-style names and grid suppliers despite a still-constructive long-term backdrop.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A pause in hyperscaler capex creates an order air-pocket for power equipment, de-rating GEV-style names and grid suppliers despite a still-constructive long-term backdrop. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Natural gas ▼ · AI capex ▼ · Industrial demand ▼ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.7% hist -2.66–+0.68% · other way +7.84% (n=9) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.33–-0.14% · other way +3.09% (n=9) |
| 3 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.65–-0.02% · other way -2.29% (n=9) |
| 4 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.5% hist -1.54–+0.36% · other way -4.64% (n=10) |
| 5 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -0.34–-0.13% · other way +1.46% (n=9) |
| 6 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% model prior · unmeasured |
| 7 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.4% hist -1.55–+2.95% · other way +27.53% (n=9) |
| 8 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.4% hist -5.53–+2.03% · other way +1.67% (n=9) |
| 9 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.73–+0.99% · other way -1.27% (n=9) |
| 10 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.27–+0.02% · other way -0.29% (n=10) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.3% hist -0.09–+0.57% · other way +3.84% (n=10) |
| 12 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.2% hist -2.73–+0.4% · other way +7.18% (n=9) |
| 13 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -1.54–+0.4% · other way -7.31% (n=10) |
| 14 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.24–-0.05% · other way +2.46% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -2.6% | 72% | 27 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | SHORT | -13bp · 5d +0bp ↺ fades | 70% | 40 | 0.33 | · |
| MRVL MRVL | LONG | +1.3% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 64% | 36 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +0.9% · 5d -0.4% ↺ fades | 62% | 36 | 0.22 | · |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -2.4% | 61% | 40 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -6.2% | 62% | 20 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.7% · 5d -0.1% ↺ fades | 58% | 34 | 0.15 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -2.2% · 5d -4.6% | 58% | 36 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -2.4% | 56% | 39 | 0.11 | ✓ matches cascade |
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -5.0% · 5d -4.1% | 57% | 22 | 0.10 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +0.4% · 5d -0.9% ↺ fades | 55% | 37 | 0.09 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XCU XCU | SHORT | -0.3% · 5d -0.4% | 54% | 36 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MSTR MSTR | LONG | +3.1% · 5d -3.5% ↺ fades | 54% | 36 | 0.07 | ⚠ differs |
| ASML ASML | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -3.1% | 54% | 36 | 0.07 | ✓ matches cascade |