What if surging AI data-centre power demand collides with grid decarbonisation targets?
Surging AI-datacentre electricity demand collides with decarbonisation targets, creating a clean-power supply crunch that lifts power prices and strains grid decarbonisation.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Surging AI-datacentre electricity demand collides with decarbonisation targets, creating a clean-power supply crunch that lifts power prices and strains grid decarbonisation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — AI capex ▲ · Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.7% hist -3.77–+3.23% · other way +0.38% (n=12) |
| 2 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -1.02–+1.41% · other way -0.8% (n=11) |
| 3 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.5% hist -7.63–+3.32% · other way +5.5% (n=12) |
| 4 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.5% hist +0.04–+0.45% · other way +2.33% (n=12) |
| 5 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.4% hist -2.04–+4.71% · other way +3.27% (n=12) |
| 6 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.4% hist -0.12–+0.91% · other way +4.94% (n=12) |
| 7 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist +0.06–+0.25% · other way -1.05% (n=12) |
| 8 | Copper XCUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.56–+2.91% · other way -2.28% (n=12) |
| 9 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -2.92–+1.14% · other way -1.22% (n=12) |
| 10 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.05–+1.74% · other way -0.61% (n=12) |
| 11 | Marvell MRVLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -1.56–+1.27% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 12 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -4.22–+10.96% · other way +1.3% (n=12) |
| 13 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.1% hist -0.45–+0.17% · other way +1.63% (n=12) |
| 14 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +2bp hist -1.69–+5.5% · other way -1.9% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 23 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CORN CORN | LONG | +0.6% · 5d -1.3% ↺ fades | 70% | 15 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -2.1% | 64% | 18 | 0.26 | ⚠ differs |
| FCX FCX | LONG | +4.4% · 5d +2.1% | 64% | 15 | 0.25 | ✓ matches cascade |
| MU MU | SHORT | -7.4% · 5d -5.1% | 65% | 17 | 0.24 | ⚠ differs |
| AVGO AVGO | SHORT | -1.4% · 5d -3.3% | 60% | 9 | 0.15 | ⚠ differs |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 61% | 13 | 0.15 | · |
| XCU XCU | LONG | +2.8% · 5d +1.3% | 58% | 15 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |
| WHEAT WHEAT | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -0.6% | 55% | 15 | 0.09 | ⚠ differs |
| SMH SMH | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.7% ↺ fades | 55% | 15 | 0.08 | ✓ matches cascade |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.2% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 53% | 23 | 0.05 | · |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -4.5% · 5d -6.5% | 52% | 15 | 0.03 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +10bp · 5d +7bp | 51% | 21 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +4bp · 5d +4bp | 51% | 23 | 0.02 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -2.0% · 5d -1.6% | 52% | 15 | 0.02 | · |