What if China attempts a decapitation strike on Taipei?
A decapitation strike on Taipei is the same fab-loss tail as full invasion but faster and more chaotic: VIX +20, Nasdaq -9, TSMC -6 as markets price a leadership vacuum plus chip-supply seizure. Like an Israel-on-Iran first-strike (June 2025) compressed onto the world's most critical supply chain. Transmission hits Apple, Nvidia, and the entire fabless ecosystem simultaneously. Forward angle: a rapid-capitulation gambit could paradoxically shorten the disruption if fabs survive intact, so the V-shape risk is real.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the Tail risk horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. China attempts missile and special-forces decapitation of Taiwan's leadership to force rapid capitulation. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ · Semiconductor supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +20.1% hist +3.54–+15.63% · other way -2.31% (n=12) |
| 2 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -9.0% hist -4.31–-2.2% · other way -0.05% (n=12) |
| 3 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -6.3% hist -3.81–-2.08% · other way +0.37% (n=12) |
| 4 | Semiconductors SMHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.8% hist -3.47–-1.86% · other way +1.4% (n=12) |
| 5 | TSMC TSMon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.7% hist -4.75–-1.16% · other way +1.64% (n=12) |
| 6 | Nvidia NVDAon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.3% hist -3.66–-1.3% · other way +4.13% (n=12) |
| 7 | S&P 500 SPXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -5.0% hist -4.23–-1.3% · other way +1.35% (n=12) |
| 8 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -5.2% hist -4.6–+1.53% · other way +8.12% (n=12) |
| 9 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -4.6% hist -9.69–+0.6% · other way -17.76% (n=11) |
| 10 | ASML ASMLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -4.0% hist -5.3–-0.09% · other way -0.91% (n=12) |
| 11 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -3.6% model prior · unmeasured |
| 12 | AMD AMDon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.8% hist -2.11–-1.06% · other way -2.72% (n=12) |
| 13 | Broadcom AVGOon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.8% hist -2.6–+0.86% · other way +5.76% (n=12) |
| 14 | Micron MUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -3.8% hist -5.0–-0.08% · other way -1.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Why we may diverge from history
Trust the cascade short on MSTR/JPM/XLF: a Taipei decapitation tail-risk has no clean analogue — the +11%/+3.8% windows are tariff-relief and mutiny bounces, structurally incomparable to a system-shock kinetic strike.
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETH ETH | SHORT | -7.7% · 5d -4.8% | 76% | 24 | 0.37 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CNY CNY | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.3% | 67% | 29 | 0.32 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Bitcoin BTC | SHORT | -5.2% · 5d -3.1% | 68% | 27 | 0.28 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +6.0% · 5d +4.0% | 65% | 31 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.4% · 5d -1.2% | 68% | 33 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| SOL SOL | SHORT | -6.7% · 5d -6.8% | 70% | 20 | 0.26 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AUD AUD | SHORT | -0.6% · 5d -0.4% | 63% | 28 | 0.22 | ✓ matches cascade |
| KRW KRW | LONG | +0.1% · 5d -0.3% ↺ fades | 61% | 28 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| MU MU | SHORT | -2.9% · 5d -3.4% | 61% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.7% | 61% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.1% · 5d -0.6% ↺ fades | 61% | 29 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INTC INTC | SHORT | -2.8% · 5d -1.7% | 59% | 34 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NVDA NVDA | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -3.7% | 61% | 29 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AVGO AVGO | LONG | +2.3% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 57% | 28 | 0.14 | ⚠ differs |
Why this probability
Decapitation strike on Taipei is novel high-end first-move; tail risk, very unlikely. A base‑rate‑anchored prior, continuously scored against what actually happens — not a forecast.