What if a disorderly carbon-price jump to $200/t abruptly reprices fossil assets?
NGFS Disorderly 'Delayed Transition' triggers a global carbon price jump above $200/t within a decade after a decade of inaction, abruptly repricing carbon-intensive equity and credit.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. NGFS Disorderly 'Delayed Transition' triggers a global carbon price jump above $200/t within a decade after a decade of inaction, abruptly repricing carbon-intensive equity and credit. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Credit spreads ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.8% hist -1.36–+1.32% · other way -1.77% (n=12) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +1.5% hist -2.93–+1.62% · other way +1.81% (n=12) |
| 3 | MicroStrategy MSTRon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.1% hist -2.3–+3.79% · other way +19.58% (n=12) |
| 4 | Solana SOLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.9% hist -2.13–+0.47% · other way -4.36% (n=9) |
| 5 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.1% hist -0.19–+0.71% · other way +0.43% (n=12) |
| 6 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.67–+0.95% · other way +0.17% (n=12) |
| 7 | Hyperliquid (HYPE) HYPEon Hyperliquid | Crypto | ▼ -0.8% model prior · unmeasured |
| 8 | Nasdaq 100 NDXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Index | ▼ -0.7% hist -0.49–-0.17% · other way +0.29% (n=12) |
| 9 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.8% hist +0.14–+0.55% · other way +2.16% (n=12) |
| 10 | Ether ETHon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.7% hist -1.5–+0.27% · other way +3.09% (n=9) |
| 11 | Volatility (VIX) VIXon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Vol | ▲ +0.6% hist -0.26–+1.62% · other way -12.65% (n=12) |
| 12 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.9% hist -1.77–+4.62% · other way +8.77% (n=12) |
| 13 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.8% hist -0.08–+1.2% · other way -2.12% (n=12) |
| 14 | Bitcoin BTCon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Crypto | ▼ -0.6% hist -1.4–+0.28% · other way +10.51% (n=9) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 74% | 30 | 0.36 | ✓ matches cascade |
| AMD AMD | SHORT | -1.7% · 5d -1.2% | 72% | 34 | 0.35 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +7bp | 66% | 40 | 0.31 | ✓ matches cascade |
| DAL DAL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 66% | 30 | 0.28 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -3.1% · 5d -2.6% | 63% | 30 | 0.23 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +4.5% · 5d -1.0% ↺ fades | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +7bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.3% · 5d -3.2% | 62% | 30 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| COIN COIN | LONG | +5.0% · 5d +2.5% | 62% | 25 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +1.2% · 5d +3.5% | 61% | 31 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| INR INR | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d +0.2% ↺ fades | 63% | 30 | 0.19 | ✓ matches cascade |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -2.4% | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.8% | 62% | 33 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |
| TSM TSM | SHORT | -1.3% · 5d -2.4% | 62% | 30 | 0.18 | ✓ matches cascade |