What if a delayed then abrupt climate transition paradoxically spikes oil prices through underinvestment?
A delayed-then-abrupt climate transition raises carbon costs and curbs upstream investment, the NGFS 'disorderly' path that paradoxically spikes oil prices via underinvestment.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 3–10 years horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A delayed-then-abrupt climate transition raises carbon costs and curbs upstream investment, the NGFS 'disorderly' path that paradoxically spikes oil prices via underinvestment. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▲ · Industrial demand ▼ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brent crude BRENTon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.4% hist -1.52–+1.69% · other way +0.29% (n=11) |
| 2 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +2.0% hist -3.34–+1.72% · other way +5.14% (n=12) |
| 3 | Energy sector XLEon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.4% hist -0.68–+0.92% · other way +0.73% (n=12) |
| 4 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.2% hist -2.09–+5.28% · other way +5.35% (n=11) |
| 5 | ExxonMobil XOM 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +1.0% hist +0.29–+0.79% · other way -2.22% (n=12) |
| 6 | Chevron CVX 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.9% hist +0.12–+0.66% · other way -0.45% (n=12) |
| 7 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -1.0% hist -1.29–+3.68% · other way +5.96% (n=11) |
| 8 | Wheat WHEATon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.24–+0.67% · other way +1.2% (n=12) |
| 9 | Corn CORNon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.7% hist -0.08–+1.1% · other way +2.79% (n=12) |
| 10 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +6bp hist -3.19–+17.72% · other way +4.1% (n=12) |
| 11 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.5% hist -0.29–-0.15% · other way +1.69% (n=12) |
| 12 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +5bp hist -3.38–+19.52% · other way +3.0% (n=12) |
| 13 | Tech sector XLK 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.3% hist -0.28–+0.11% · other way +1.66% (n=12) |
| 14 | Freeport (copper) FCX 📈 chart | Equity | ▼ -0.2% hist -1.6–+0.54% · other way +8.45% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 40 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +3.6% · 5d +0.0% | 66% | 30 | 0.29 | ⚠ differs |
| Volatility VIX | LONG | +2.5% · 5d +3.6% | 66% | 31 | 0.29 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +15bp · 5d +8bp | 64% | 40 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| High-yield credit HYG | SHORT | -0.8% · 5d -0.2% | 68% | 30 | 0.27 | · |
| CL CL | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -2.4% | 65% | 30 | 0.25 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +5.2% · 5d +0.2% | 63% | 30 | 0.22 | ⚠ differs |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +14bp · 5d +6bp | 61% | 40 | 0.21 | ✓ matches cascade |
| XLE XLE | SHORT | -1.2% · 5d -0.6% | 60% | 30 | 0.20 | ⚠ differs |
| BRENT BRENT | SHORT | -2.5% · 5d -1.6% | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| NG NG | SHORT | -2.1% · 5d -1.9% | 60% | 30 | 0.18 | ⚠ differs |
| SOL SOL | LONG | +2.6% · 5d -5.3% ↺ fades | 63% | 24 | 0.17 | ⚠ differs |
| GBPUSD GBPUSD | SHORT | -0.5% · 5d -0.2% | 60% | 30 | 0.17 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.0% · 5d -0.8% | 59% | 30 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| NDX NDX | SHORT | -0.2% · 5d -1.0% | 60% | 33 | 0.14 | ✓ matches cascade |