What if Distillate glut as diesel and jet build together?
Weak freight and travel demand let diesel and jet stocks build simultaneously, swamping the middle of the barrel and dragging crude runs and prices lower; the distillate glut deepens the surplus.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Weak freight and travel demand let diesel and jet stocks build simultaneously, swamping the middle of the barrel and dragging crude runs and prices lower; the distillate glut deepens the surplus. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Diesel ▼ · Inflation expectations ▼ · Jet fuel ▼ · Oil demand ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United Airlines UAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.3% hist -7.43–+10.65% · other way +70.35% (n=5) |
| 2 | Delta DAL 📈 chart | Equity | ▲ +0.2% hist -3.33–+6.9% · other way +33.73% (n=5) |
| 3 | WTI crude CLon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▼ -0.2% hist -4.31–+5.56% · other way -9.7% (n=5) |
| 4 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -3.84–+4.2% · other way +21.1% (n=12) |
| 5 | Gold XAUon Hyperliquid 📈 chart | Commodity | ▲ +0.1% hist -0.75–+1.54% · other way -4.49% (n=5) |
| 6 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▼ -2bp hist -3.54–+2.23% · other way +15.7% (n=12) |
Probable recommendation
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 13 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL DAL | LONG | +6.7% · 5d +2.1% | 73% | 11 | 0.43 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -7.3% · 5d -4.9% | 71% | 13 | 0.30 | · |
| Gold XAU | LONG | +1.4% · 5d +0.3% | 65% | 13 | 0.27 | ✓ matches cascade |
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +6bp · 5d +2bp | 65% | 13 | 0.19 | ⚠ differs |
| UAL UAL | LONG | +11.0% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 56% | 12 | 0.12 | ✓ matches cascade |
| CL CL | LONG | +6.1% · 5d +0.5% | 53% | 13 | 0.05 | ⚠ differs |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +3bp · 5d +2bp | 29% | 13 | 0.00 | ⚠ differs |
| US dollar DXY | SHORT | -0.1% · 5d -0.4% | 47% | 13 | 0.00 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +9.7% · 5d -2.0% ↺ fades | 50% | 7 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +2.0% · 5d -0.5% ↺ fades | 47% | 11 | 0.00 | · |