What if North Korean commandos infiltrate through DMZ tunnels?
DMZ tunnel infiltration sparking firefights and mobilization is a war-scare catalyst short of bombardment: VIX +13, Nasdaq -6, crypto-beta leads down. Rhymes with the 2015 DMZ landmine incident that triggered a brief mobilization and artillery exchange before talks defused it. Transmission is Korean risk sentiment and the KRW. Forward angle: history shows these flashpoints usually de-escalate via back-channel, so the modal path is a fadeable dip unless Seoul orders full mobilization or Pyongyang shells across the line.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. North Korean special forces infiltrate via tunnels, triggering firefights and full mobilization. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Geopolitical risk ▲ · Risk appetite ▼ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.