What if Driving-season gasoline crack spikes on tight US inventories?
A strong Memorial-Day-to-Labor-Day driving season meets lean gasoline inventories and refinery hiccups, spiking the RBOB crack and lifting retail pump prices into the election-sensitive window.
how we built this number — every step
The class rate is measured from our dated, sourced event library (decade-normalized Poisson — the full table is public at base_rates.json). The variant’s share within its class is the analyst’s editorial call, published so you can audit it. A wider range means thinner precedent. Full recipe: methodology · scored at Reality Check.
The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (gold) over time vs the crowd's (Polymarket, blue), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. The gold path is an illustrative reconstruction anchored to today's estimate — real dated events, not a live re-estimate history.
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. A strong Memorial-Day-to-Labor-Day driving season meets lean gasoline inventories and refinery hiccups, spiking the RBOB crack and lifting retail pump prices into the election-sensitive window. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Consumer spending ▲ · Gasoline ▲ · Inflation surprise ▲ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.
If it happens — the markets it would move
Biggest moves first. Projected moves are cascade-model priors; hist A–B% = what comparable past events actually did (measured abnormal returns), and model prior · unmeasured marks markets with no analogue backing yet. Tap any market for its price history.
| Market | Class | Projected move | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 30y Treasury yield DGS30 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -3.81–+18.5% · other way -10.4% (n=12) |
| 2 | 10y Treasury yield DGS10 📈 chart | Rate | ▲ +1bp hist -4.8–+14.1% · other way -9.3% (n=12) |
Historical precedent — what analogous events actually did
Across 28 analogous events (overlap‑weighted), as abnormal returns — market beta stripped, so it's the event's own effect, not the market backdrop. Shown at 20 days (persistent) and 5 days (immediate); ↺ fades = the two horizons disagree. Confidence = consistency × sample × significance.
| Asset | History says | Abnormal (20d · 5d) | Hit | n | Confidence | vs cascade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30y yield DGS30 | LONG | +16bp · 5d +7bp | 67% | 27 | 0.33 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Volatility VIX | SHORT | -3.8% · 5d -3.4% | 64% | 22 | 0.19 | · |
| US dollar DXY | LONG | +0.3% · 5d -0.0% ↺ fades | 61% | 28 | 0.19 | · |
| 10y yield DGS10 | LONG | +13bp · 5d +6bp | 58% | 28 | 0.15 | ✓ matches cascade |
| Gold XAU | SHORT | -0.9% · 5d -0.3% | 52% | 21 | 0.04 | · |
| Bitcoin BTC | LONG | +5.7% · 5d +0.0% | 50% | 12 | 0.00 | · |
| High-yield credit HYG | LONG | +0.5% · 5d -0.2% ↺ fades | 37% | 19 | 0.00 | · |