What if the Druzhba pipeline is severed for good?
A permanent loss of southern Druzhba severs landlocked Russian crude to Hungary (MOL) and Slovakia (Slovnaft), who must replace ~200kbd via the Adria/Croatia line at a premium; the cleanest trade is firmer Med Brent and wider regional cracks, not a large global flat-price move. Rhymes with the repeated 2024-25 Druzhba strike outages that were patched within days; flat price shrugged. Transmission runs Russia to Central Europe; forward angle: a true abandonment finally forces the Adria switch Budapest has resisted, a structural diesel-tightening for the region.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 0–6 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a risk-off shock. A fresh strike wrecks the repaired southern Druzhba; operators abandon the leg, permanently cutting Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — European energy ▲ · Geopolitical risk ▲ · Oil supply risk ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.