What if Ecuador-Ivory-Coast cocoa rains lift the global main crop?
Recovering rains and disease control across West Africa and Ecuador lift the cocoa main crop, easing the deficit and pulling prices off records.
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The butterfly cascade
How this trigger trickles across markets, left → right — the root shock, its first‑order moves, then the ripple effects. Drag any node; tap a market for its real price history.
Resolution timeline — how this probability is moving
Our model's odds (electric blue) over time vs the market's (Polymarket, amber), from the past toward the 6–18 months horizon. Each dot is a real macro event that nudged the probability — green pushed it up, red pushed it down. Tap a dot for the source. Loading the probability audit trail…
What it would mean
If this plays out, it is a mixed shock. Recovering rains and disease control across West Africa and Ecuador lift the cocoa main crop, easing the deficit and pulling prices off records. The trigger decomposes into signed root‑shocks — Climate/crop supply ▼ · Consumer spending ▲ · Food inflation ▼ · Risk appetite ▲ — which propagate through our causal graph to the markets below.